The AI stack is entering a period of infrastructure lock-in at hyperscaler scale while the capability ceiling rises across both closed and open-weight models. Compute commitments are being structured in 10-year agreements and multi-gigawatt blocks. The open-weight frontier is explicitly engineering hardware independence from NVIDIA — a structural signal, not a performance story. Developer tooling is in active competitive consolidation: the same labs releasing the models are now building the tools developers use to access them.

4 signals